World Cup draw, ay. Draw for the World Cup. Eli Mengem’s favourite day of the year. The day when we find out the fixtures that will take place in Russia next summer. The long hot summer of 2018, but cold. Because it’s Russia.

Some kind soul on Twitter has done the frankly insane amount of maths required to figure out who are England’s most statistically likely opponents in the group stages. Based on over 20,000,000 simulations, @MisterChiping has put together the above diagram. For those of you who aren’t Good Will Hunting, we’ve broken down the key points below.

England are least likely to draw France from Pot 1 in the group stage, so it looks like they won’t be getting absolutely Pogba’d in the first week or so. In progressively worse news, the teams that The Three Lions’ are most likely to be drawn against are  Costa Rica (17% chance), Panama (15.5% chance), and… Brazil or Argentina (both a 20% chance).

Messi or Neymar and Big Phil Jones are going to have a right old go at it in that stadium where most of the seats stick out the side. Can’t wait.

Watch the World Cup Draw on the BBC at 3pm, or Sky Sports News if you prefer your news shouty, and find out who England actually get. Also, for more football miscellany and scintillating Russia 2018 build-up, subscribe to our quarterly print magazine.